UFC 123 may be the best card of the year that doesn’t have a title up for grabs. It’s one of the few times where we have a true co-main event, with Machida facing Rampage, and Matt Hughes squaring off against BJ Penn. We could flip flop these bouts and it would carry just as much interest, and garner just as many pay-per-view purchases.
Here we get a chance to witness another “trilogy fight”. The series is ties at 1-1, and this one will be for the final bragging rights. There are two ways we can look at this bout. From one perspective we have the legendary Matt Hughes vs. The Prodigy BJ Penn. Another point of view would be the experienced but aging grappler vs. the fighter formerly seen as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, who is at a crossroads in his career. It’s my thought that the first perspective is the style of fight we are going to see, but the latter may be what is really happening. The fight has great potential regardless of the perspective from which you view it.
Perhaps the most interesting fact to look at in this matchup is that almost half of the total career losses between the two have come from each other, or Georges St. Pierre.
Statistical breakdown
Hughes Penn
Age 37 31
Record 45-7 15-6
Striking Offense 55% 51%
Striking Defense 55% 62%
Takedowns 51% 64%
Takedown Def. 31% 80%
*Items in bold signify an advantage.
Fight Phases
Stand-up
The advantage in the stand-up goes to Penn. He is a much better stand-up striker. He has a great chin, as well. While the “Striking Offense” stat leans towards Hughes being the more skilled, it should be noted that 62% of Hughes striking is in the form of ground and pound.
Clinch
The advantage in the clinch goes to Penn as well. He is a better striker from there than Hughes. Hughes has a better wrestling clinch; however, BJ has phenomenal takedown defense. That negates Hughes’ strength in the clinch.
Ground
Here is the aspect of the fighting game that gives Hughes a chance to win. Hughes is a phenomenal grappler. He may not have the best takedowns in the game. He may not have the best takedown defense, but when a fight hits the mat Hughes is high on the list of guys you shouldn’t want to be on the ground with. He has great control from all top positions, and enjoys banging guys’ heads off the mat whenever given the opportunity. Another thing about Hughes that shouldn’t be a secret at this point in his career, but sometimes still seems to be is for a guy who is classified as a wrestler, he has an outstanding guard and submission skills better than all but the very best jiu-jitsu fighters. Penn’s jiu-jitsu should not be overlooked, but just as Penn’s takedown defense nullifies Hughes wrestling skills in the clinch, Hughes’ grappling skills overrides BJ’s jiu-jitsu.
Prediction
This is another tough fight to pick. They have both beaten the other. A major question that we can’t ignore is how will Penn react after back to back losses? The latter of which, was worse than the first. If he was hungry to get the belt back from Edgar after the first loss, he didn’t show it. Is he hungry now?
An intangible advantage Hughes should be carrying around with him right now is the knowledge of how to expose Penn. Edgar wrote a manifesto on how to dismantle “The Prodigy” in those last two fights. If Hughes can mimic Edgar’s fight by using good head movement to slow Penn down in the stand-up game, set up his shots with feints, and set up some combinations by faking his shots he should have no problem getting this fight where he wants it, on the ground.
Even though two-thirds of this fight sways in favor of Penn, it seems inevitable that somehow, someway, this fight will end up on the ground. Any way the fight gets there is good for Hughes, even if it means getting put on his back by strikes. That is the one-third of the fight that favors Hughes. Against my own self-created odds, I am going with Matt Hughes giving BJ Penn his third straight loss. Matt’s heart and will-to-win have a way of balancing out the odds.
Winner: Matt Hughes, (TKO).
Chad Barrows, MMA News 247
